This work aims to fill a lacunae in the project-oriented production systems literature providing a formal analytic description of the rework effects formulae and the determination of the extended design time due to a certain degree of overlapping in a pair of activities. It is made through the utilization of concepts of workflow construction with hidden (semi) Markov models theory and establishing a way to disaggregate activities into sub-activities, in order to determine the activity parameters used by the project scheduling techniques. With the aim to make a correlation between the entropy of the state transitions and the probability of changes, the information theory is also used, and the concept of impact caused by the probability of changes is provided. Numerical examples are shown for the purpose to demonstrate the applicability of the concepts developed, and one example of overlapping of two activities is shown. The original contributions of this work are shown on the last section.
Mots-clés : activity parameters, sub-activities Markov model, entropy, project scheduling parameters, rework estimation
@article{RO_2014__48_3_303_0,
author = {Marujo, Lino G. and Qassim, Raad Y.},
title = {Process parameter prediction \protect\emph{via }markov models of sub-activities},
journal = {RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Op\'erationnelle},
pages = {303--324},
publisher = {EDP-Sciences},
volume = {48},
number = {3},
year = {2014},
doi = {10.1051/ro/2014009},
mrnumber = {3264380},
zbl = {1309.90016},
language = {en},
url = {http://archive.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2014009/}
}
TY - JOUR AU - Marujo, Lino G. AU - Qassim, Raad Y. TI - Process parameter prediction via markov models of sub-activities JO - RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle PY - 2014 SP - 303 EP - 324 VL - 48 IS - 3 PB - EDP-Sciences UR - http://archive.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2014009/ DO - 10.1051/ro/2014009 LA - en ID - RO_2014__48_3_303_0 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Marujo, Lino G. %A Qassim, Raad Y. %T Process parameter prediction via markov models of sub-activities %J RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle %D 2014 %P 303-324 %V 48 %N 3 %I EDP-Sciences %U http://archive.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2014009/ %R 10.1051/ro/2014009 %G en %F RO_2014__48_3_303_0
Marujo, Lino G.; Qassim, Raad Y. Process parameter prediction via markov models of sub-activities. RAIRO - Operations Research - Recherche Opérationnelle, Tome 48 (2014) no. 3, pp. 303-324. doi : 10.1051/ro/2014009. http://archive.numdam.org/articles/10.1051/ro/2014009/
[1] and , Mining Process Models from Workflow Logs. IBM Research Center (1998).
[2] , , and , Network Information Flow. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theor. 46 (2000) 1204-1216. | MR | Zbl
[3] , and , Structuring product development model. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 130 (2001) 539-558. | MR | Zbl
[4] , Estimation of state probabilities using the maximum entropy principle. IBM J. Res. Dev. 24 (1980) 563-569. | MR | Zbl
[5] , Grafos: teoria, modelos, algoritmos. E. Blucher (1996).
[6] , and , Key concepts in modeling product development processes. Syst. Eng. 9 (2006) 104-128.
[7] , and , Hierarchical hidden Markov models with general state hierarchy. In AAAI (2004).
[8] , Overlapping design and build cycles in product development. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 134 (2001) 392-424. | MR | Zbl
[9] and , A simulation-based process model for managing complex design projects. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 52 (2005) 316-327.
[10] , On the satisfiability of authorization constraints in workflow systems. Department of Mathematics, Royal Holloway, University of London (2004).
[11] , , and , Dynamic workflow composition using Markov decision processes. Int. J. Web Serv. Res. 2 (2005) 1-17.
[12] , , and , Activity recognition and abnormality detection with the switching hidden semi-Markov model. In IEEE (2005).
[13] , and , The hierarchical hidden Markov model: analysis and applications. Mach. Learn. 32 (1998) 41-62. | Zbl
[14] and , The Liar's Club: concealing rework in concurrent development. Concurr. Eng.: Res. Appl. 11 (2003) 211-119.
[15] and , Project Acceleration via Activity Crashing, Overlapping and Substitution. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 55 (2008) 509-601.
[16] and , An aggregate model of project-oriented production. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 19 (1989) 220-231.
[17] et al., Scheduling-free resource management. Data Knowl. Eng. 61 (2007) 59-75.
[18] , An inductive approach to the acquisition and adaptation of workflow models. Daimler Chrysler AG Research and Technology (1999).
[19] , A machine learning approach to workflow management. Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. 1810 (2000) 183-194.
[20] and , Integrating machine learning and workflow management to support acquisition and adaptation of workflow models. In IEEE (1998).
[21] , Information theory and statistical mechanics. Phys. Rev. 106 (1957) 620-630. | MR | Zbl
[22] , Notes on Statistical Mechanics, Information Theory and Thermodynamics. Xerox Palo Alto Research Centre (1994).
[23] , Design process improvement: sequencing and overlapping activities in product development (1993).
[24] , and , A model-based framework to overlap product development activities. Manag. Sci. 43 (1997) 437-451. | Zbl
[25] and , Time constraints in workflow models. In ICAM (2003).
[26] , , and , Duration abnormality detection in sequences of human activity. Dept. of Computing, Curtin University of Technology (2004).
[27] and , Project scheduling using dependency structure matrix. Int. J. Project Management 23 (2005) 223-230.
[28] , and , On the complexity of explicit duration HMM's. IEEE Trans. Speech Audio Proc. 3 (1995) 213-217.
[29] , Statistical inference, statistical mechanics and the relationship to information theory. Lecture Notes, MIT (2004).
[30] , Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). University of California at Berkeley (2002).
[31] and , A concurrent engineering decision model: management of the project activities information flows. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 54 (1998) 115-127.
[32] , A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proc. IEEE 77 (1989) 257-286.
[33] , and , Time-cost trade-offs in overlapped product development. Oper. Res. 48 (2000) 858-865.
[34] and , Thinking with Models: Mathematical Models in the Physical, Biological and Social Sciences. Pergamon-Press (1981). | MR | Zbl
[35] , A mathematical theory of communications. The Bell Systems Technical Journal 27 (1948) 379-423, 623-656. | MR | Zbl
[36] and , Learning geometrically-constrained hidden Markov models for robot navigation: bridging the topological-geometrical gap. J. Artificial Intelligence Res. 16 (2002) 167-207. | MR | Zbl
[37] and , Improving the performance of time-constrained workflow processing. J. Syst. Softw. 58 (2001) 211-119.
[38] , Bayesian Learning of Probabilistic Language Models (1994). | MR
[39] , and , Managing the exchange of information in product development. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 184 (2008) 311-326. | Zbl
[40] , and , Assessment of rework probabilities for simulating product development processes using the design structure matrix. In ASME (2001).
[41] , and , An approach to measuring coupled tasks strength and sequencing of coupled tasks in new product development. Concurr. Eng.: Res. Appl. 14 (2006) 305-311.
[42] and , Composing nested web processes using hierarchical semi-Markov decisioxn processes. In AAAI (2006).
Cité par Sources :
