New insights into Approximate bayesian Computation

Biau, Gérard; Cérou, Frédéric; Guyader, Arnaud

doi:10.1214/13-AIHP590

Biau, Gérard ; Cérou, Frédéric ; Guyader, Arnaud

Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilités et statistiques, Tome 51 (2015) no. 1, pp. 376-403.

Résumé
Abstract

Le terme anglais « Approximate Bayesian Computation » (ABC en abrégé) désigne une famille de techniques bayésiennes ayant pour objet la simulation selon une loi de probabilité lorsque la vraisemblance a posteriori n’est pas disponible ou s’avère impossible à évaluer numériquement. Dans le présent article, nous envisageons cette procédure du point de vue de la théorie des $k$ -plus proches voisins, en nous attachant plus particulièrement à examiner les propriétés statistiques des sorties de l’algorithme. Cela nous conduit à analyser le comportement asymptotique d’un estimateur de la densité conditionnelle naturellement associé à ABC, utilisé en pratique et possédant à la fois les caractéristiques d’un estimateur des $k$ -plus proches voisins et celles d’une méthode à noyau.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever suitable likelihoods are not available. In the present paper, we analyze the procedure from the point of view of $k$ -nearest neighbor theory and explore the statistical properties of its outputs. We discuss in particular some asymptotic features of the genuine conditional density estimate associated with ABC, which is an interesting hybrid between a $k$ -nearest neighbor and a kernel method.

Zbl

DOI : 10.1214/13-AIHP590

Classification : 62C10, 62F15, 62G20
Mots-clés : approximate bayesian computation, nonparametric estimation, conditional density estimation, nearest neighbor methods, mathematical statistics

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     journal = {Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilit\'es et statistiques},
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Biau, Gérard; Cérou, Frédéric; Guyader, Arnaud. New insights into Approximate bayesian Computation. Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilités et statistiques, Tome 51 (2015) no. 1, pp. 376-403. doi : 10.1214/13-AIHP590. http://archive.numdam.org/articles/10.1214/13-AIHP590/

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