@article{JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0, author = {Freedman, David}, title = {From association to causation : some remarks on the history of statistics}, journal = {Journal de la Soci\'et\'e fran\c{c}aise de statistique}, pages = {5--32}, publisher = {Soci\'et\'e fran\c{c}aise de statistique}, volume = {140}, number = {3}, year = {1999}, language = {en}, url = {http://archive.numdam.org/item/JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0/} }
TY - JOUR AU - Freedman, David TI - From association to causation : some remarks on the history of statistics JO - Journal de la Société française de statistique PY - 1999 SP - 5 EP - 32 VL - 140 IS - 3 PB - Société française de statistique UR - http://archive.numdam.org/item/JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0/ LA - en ID - JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Freedman, David %T From association to causation : some remarks on the history of statistics %J Journal de la Société française de statistique %D 1999 %P 5-32 %V 140 %N 3 %I Société française de statistique %U http://archive.numdam.org/item/JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0/ %G en %F JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0
Freedman, David. From association to causation : some remarks on the history of statistics. Journal de la Société française de statistique, Tome 140 (1999) no. 3, pp. 5-32. http://archive.numdam.org/item/JSFS_1999__140_3_5_0/
Of time and space : the contemporary relevance of the Chicago school. Social Forces 75 1149-82.
(1997),Molecular Biology of the Cell, 3rd. ed., Garland Publishing, New York.
, , , , and (1994).AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY (1997). Cancer Facts & Figures - 1997 Atlanta, Georgia.
Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 91 444-72 | Zbl
, and (1996).Antibody to HSV-2 induced tumor specific antigens in serums from patients with cervical carcinoma. Science 181 161-64
, , and (1973).The statistical study of association between smoking and lung cancer. Proc. Mayo Clinic 30 319-48.
(1955).The American Occupational Structure. Wiley, New York. Chapter 5.
and (1967).Statistical Methods in Cancer Research, Vol. 1. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon. Sci. Publ. No. 32. Distributed by Oxford University Press. | MR
and (1980).Statistical Methods in Cancer Research, Vol. 2, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon. Sci. Publ. No. 82. Distributed by Oxford University Press.
and (1987).Statistical criticism. Cancer 13 394-400.
(1960).The Challenge of Epidemiology : Issues and Setected Readings, Sci. Publ. No. 505, World Health Organization, Geneva.
, , and , eds (1989).Cancer of the uterine cervix. New Engl. J. Med. 334 1030-38.
and (1996)Twenty-four year mortality in World War II US male veteran twins discordant for cigarette smoking. Int. J. Epidemiol. 25 554-559.
and (1996)Pellagra, Academic Press.
(1981).Global climate and infectious disease : the cholera paradigm. Science 274 2025-31
(1996).Smoking and lung cancer. In S. E. Fienberg and D. V. Hinkley, eds. R. A. Fisher, An Appreciation. Lecture notes in statistics, Vol 1, pp. 182-91, SpringerVerlag, New York. | MR | Zbl
(1980).Inference for non-random samples. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 59 55-77. | MR | Zbl
and (1997).A method for estimating comparative rates from clinical data. Applications to cancer of the lung, breast and cervix. J. Nat. Cancer Int. 11 1269-75.
(1951).Smoking and lung cancer : recent evidence and a discussion of some questions. J. Nat. Cancer Inst. 22 173-203.
, , , , and (1959).The role of significance tests. Scand. J. Statist. 4 49-70. | MR | Zbl
(1977).La politique des grands nombres : histoire de la raison statistique. Editions La Découverte, Paris. English translation by C. Naish ( 1998). The Politics of Large Numbers : A History of Statistical Reasoning. Harvard University Press | MR
(1993).How important is publication bias ?A synthesis of available data. AIDS Education and Prevention 9 Suppl. A 15-21
(1997).On Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications. Lecture Notes No. 307 in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer. | Zbl
, ed. (1988).Major epidemics of the 20th century : from coronary thrombosis to AIDS. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 150 373-95.
(1987).Paternal exposure not to blame. Nature 367 678-80.
, and (1994).Smoking and carcinoma of the lung : preliminary report. Br. Med. J. ii 739-48.
and (1950).A study of the actiology of carcinoma of the lung. Br. Med. J. ii 1271-86
and (1952).The mortality of doctors in relation to their smoking habit : A preliminary report Br. Med. J. i 1451-55.
and (1954).Pasteur and Modern Science. Springer.
(1988).Predictability and prediction. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 156 Part 2 167-206 (with discussion.
and (1993).Causation and Disease : A Chronological Journey. Plenum, New York
(1993).Death in Hamburg : Society and Politics in the Cholera Year. Oxford University Press.
(1987).Epithelial cell surfaces induce Salmonella proteins required for bacterial adherence and invasion. Science 243 940-42.
, and (1989).Smoking : The Cancer Controversy. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh
(1959).A note on screening regression equations. Amer. Statistician 37 152-55. | MR
(1983).As others see us : a case study in path analysis. J. Educational Statistics 12 101-223.
(1987).Statistical models and shoe leather. In P. Marsden, ed., Sociol. Methodol.
(1991).Some issues in the foundation of statistics. Foundations of Science 1 19-83. | MR | Zbl
(1995).From association to causation via regression. Adv. Appl. Math. 18 59-110. | MR | Zbl
(1997).Concordance between rats and mice in bioassays for carcinogenesis. Reg. Tox. Pharmacol. 23 225-32.
, and (1996).On the multistage model for carcinogenesis. Environ. Health Perspect. 81 169-88.
and (1989).Ex-smokers and the multistage model for lung cancer. Epidemiol. 1 21-29
and (1990).Statistics. 3rd ed. Norton, New York.
, , and (1997).From mouse to man : the quantitative assessment of cancer risks. Statistical Science 3 3-56 (with discussion). | MR | Zbl
and (1988).Essays in Positive Economics. University of Chicago Press.
(1953).Contribution to the study of the etiology and prevention of cancer of the cervix. Amer. J. Obstetrics and Gynecology 60 516-22.
(1950).Statistics in action. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 433 1-13
(1996).PM25 and mortality in long-term prospective cohort studies : cause effect or statistical associations? Environ. Health Perspect. 106 535-49.
(1998).Results of case-control study of leukaemia and lymphoma among young people near Sellafield nuclear plant in West Cumbria. Br. Med. J. 300 423-33. Published erratum appears in BMJ 1992 305 715, and see letter in BMJ 1991 302 907.
, , , , and (1990).Leukemia in children and paternal radiation exposure at the Sellafield nuclear site. Mon. Nat. Cancer Inst. 12 133-35.
(1992).Theoria Motus Corporum Coelestium. Perthes et Besser, Hamburg. Reprinted in 1963 by Dover, New York
(1809).Principes généraux de statistique médicale, ou, Développement des règles qui doivent présider à son emploi. Bechet jeune et Labe, Paris.
(1840).Causation, Statistics and Sociology. Twenthy-ninth Geary Lecture, Nuffield College, Oxford. Publ. by the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland.
(1998).Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research. Epidemiol. 10 37-48
, , and (1998).Serum antibodies and subsequent cervical ne oplasms : A prospective study with 12 years of followup. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 137 166-70
, , , , , , , and (1993).Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics. Holden-Day, San Francisco. | MR | Zbl
and (1964).Causal inference, path analysis, and recursive structural equations models. In C. Clogg, ed., Sociol. Methodol..
(1988).The Scientific Background of the International Sanitary Conferences 1851-1938 . World Health Organization, Geneva.
(1975).The Grand Leap. Brit. J. Phil. Sci. 47 113-123
and (1996).Are there algorithms that discover causal structure? Technical report no. 514, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley. Synthese 121 29-54. | Zbl
and (1999).Tobacco Smoking. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Monograph 38, Lyon. Distributed by Oxford University Press.
(1986).Asbestos in drinking water and cancer incidence in the San Francisco Bay Area. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 112 54-72.
, , , , and (1980).Twins, smoking and mortality : a 12-year prospective study of smoking-discordant twin pairs. Social Science and Medicine 29 1083-89.
and (1989).Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9. Br. Med. J. 309 1197-1201.
and (1994).That confounded P-value. Epidemiology 9 7-8.
, , and (1998).Nouvelles méthodes pour la détermination des orbites des comètes. Courcier, Paris. Reprinted in 1959 by Dover, New York.
(1805).Making it Count. University of California Press, Berkeley.
(1985).Under-identification, structural estimation, and forecasting. Econometrica 28 855-65.
(1960).Cancer studies in Massachusetts : Habits, charactenstics and environment of individuals with and without lung cancer. New Engl. J. Med. 198 481-87.
and (1928).Recherches sur les effets de la saignée dans quelques maladies inflammatoires : et sur l'action de l'émétique et des vésicatoires dans la pneumonie. J. B. Baillière, Paris. Reprinted by The Classics of Medicine Library, Birmingham, Alabama, 1986.
(1835).Econometric policy evaluation : a critique. In K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, vol. 1 of the Carnegie-Rochester Conferences on Public Policy, supplementary series to the Journal of Monetary Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 19-64. (With discussion.)
(1976).Identification Problems in the Social Sciences. Harvard University Press.
(1995).Causality m Crisis ? Proceedmgs of the Notre Dame Conference on Causahty, Notre Dame Press.
and , eds. (1997).A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive John W. Parker, London. 8th ed. reprinted by Longman, Green and Co., Ltd., London ( 1965). See especially Book III Chapter VIII. Reprinted in 1974 by the University of Toronto Press.
(1843)Coordinate regulation and sensory transduction in the control of bacterial virulence. Science 243 916-22.
, and (1989).Tabakmissbrauch und Lungcarcinom. Zeitschrift fur Krebsforsuch 49 57-84.
(1939).NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (1997). Possible Health Effects of Exposure to Residential Electric and Magnetic Fields. National Academy of Science, Washington, DC.
Sur les applications de la théorie des probabilités aux expériences agricoles : Essai des principes. Roczniki Nauk Rolniczki 10 1-51, in Polish. English translation by D. Dabrowska and T. Speed, 1990. Statistical Science 5 463-80.
(1923).Quantitative evaluation of multiplicity in epidemiology and public health research. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 147 615-19.
(1998).A rivalry of foulness : official and unofficial investigations of the London cholera epidemic of 1854 . Amer. J. Publ. Health 88 1545-53.
, , and (1998).La théorie des germes et ses applications à la médecine et à la chirurgie, lecture faite à l'Academie de Médecine le 30 avril 1878, par M. Pasteur en son nom et au nom de MM. Joubert et Chamberland, G. Masson, Paris.
(1878).Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometnka 82 689-709. | MR | Zbl
(1995).What's wrong with Bonferroni adjustments. Br. Med. J. 316 1236-38.
(1998).Daily mortality and PM10 pollution in Utah Valley. Archives of Environmental Health 47 211-17.
, and (1992).Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés, ou Essai de physique sociale. Bachelier, Paris.
(1835).Cholera. Amer. J. Med. 104 386-94.
(1998).Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. Amer. Sociol. Rev. 15 351-7.
(1950).The Cholera Years. Chicago University Press.
(1962).No adjustments are needed for multiple comparisons. Epidemiol. 1 43-46.
(1990).Lessons from John Graunt. Lancet 347 37-39.
(1996).Modern Epidemiology, 2nd. ed. Lippincott-Raven.
and , eds. (1998).Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology 66 688-701.
(1974).The Interrelation between Uterine Cancer and Syphilis. Copenhagen.
(1953).Adjusting for non ignorable drop-out using semiparametric non-response models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. to appear. | MR | Zbl
, , and (1999).The Etiology, Concept, and Prophylasis of Childbed Fever. Translated by K. C. Carter, University of Wisconsin Press, 1983.
(1867).On the Mode of Communication of Cholera. Churchill, London. Reprinted by Hafner, New York, 1965.
(1855).The History of Statistics. Harvard University Press. | MR | Zbl
(1986).When genius errs. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 133 416-25.
(1991).Role of a p53 polymorphism in the development of human papillomavirus-associated cancer. Nature 393 229-34.
, , , , , , , , and (1998).Effect of outdoor airborne particulate matter on daily death counts. Environ. Health Perspect. 103 490-97.
, , , and (1995).Epidemiology faces its limits. Science 269, 14 July 1995, pp. 164-9. Letters : 8 Sep 1995, pp. 1325-8.
(1995).The (political) science of salt. Science 281, 14 August 1998, pp. 898-907.
(1998).Goldberger on Pellagra. Louisiana State University Press.
, ed. (1964).An autopsy of epidemiologic methods : the case of 'poppers' in the early epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Amer. J. Epidemiol. 129 455-7; and see comments.
and (1989).UK Smoking Statistics. 2nd ed., Oxford University Press.
and , eds. (1991).A new perspective on John Snow's communicable disease theory. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 142 (9 Suppl.) S3-9.
(1995).Tobacco smoking as a possible etiological factor in bronchogenic carcinoma : a study of six hundred and eight-four proved cases. J. Amer. Med. Assoc. 143 329-36.
and (1950).A study of environmental factors in carcinoma of the cervix. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 68 1016-52.
, , and (1954).An investigation into the causes of changes in pauperism in England, chiefly during the last two intercensal decades. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 62 249-95.
(1899).