La maîtrise des incertitudes dans un contexte industriel. 1re partie : une approche méthodologique globale basée sur des exemples

de Rocquigny, Étienne

Journal de la Société française de statistique, Tome 147 (2006) no. 3, pp. 33-71.

[1] Apostolakis G. (1999), The distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is important ; an example from the inclusion of aging effects in the PSA, PSA'99, Washington DC.

[2] Aven T. (2003), Foundations of Risk Analysis, Wiley. | MR

[3] Beck M.B.(1987), Water Quality Modeling : A Review of the Analysis of Uncertainty, Wat. Res. Research, Vol. 23, n° 8.

[4] Beaudouin F., Munier B., Serquin Y. (1997), Multiattribute utility theory : Towards a more general framework, Proc. of the 1997 ESReDA seminar on decision analysis and its applications in safety and reliability.

[5] Bestion D. (2003), Final Report -§ 4.2 State of the Art on Uncertainty Evaluation, European Project for Future Advances in Sciences and Technology for Nuclear Engineering Thermal-Hydraulics (EUROFASTNET).

[6] Boyack B.E. (1990), Quantifying reactor safety margins-part I : an overview of the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty evaluation methodology, Nucl. Eng. Des. 119, 1-15.

[7] Bussac R., Bailly P., Thomas Ph., De Rocquigny E. (2004), CO2 emissions : estimating uncertainties in practice for power plants, "Implementation of European Environmental Regulation in Fossil-Fired Power Plant" of EDF Group" Seminar Sep. 2004, Gdansk, Polska.

[8] Cacuci D.G., et al. (1980), Sensitivity Theory for General Systems of Nonli-near Equations, Nucl. Sc. & Eng. 75.

[9] Cambier S. (2000), Approche probabilité pour la prise en compte de la dispersion de paramètres mécaniques - Application à la fatigue vibratoire de réseaux de tuyauteries, Thèse ENSAM Paris.

[10] Cambier S., Guihot P., Coffignal G. (2002), Computational methods for accounting of structural uncertainties, applications to dynamic behavior prediction of piping systems. Structural Safety, 24 : 29-50.

[11] Corre B. (2003), Problématique des incertitudes en exploration-production pétrolière : application des plans d'expériences. Total Fina Elf, Séminaire «Plans d'Expériences Numériques», Ec. Mines St-Etienne.

[12] Cukier R.I., Levine H.B., Schuler K.E. (1978). Non-linear sensitivity analysis of multi-parameter model systems. Journal of computational physics 26, p. 1-42. | MR | Zbl

[13] Dacunha-Castelle D. (1996). Chemins de l'aléatoire. Le hasard et le risque dans la société moderne. Flammarion, Paris.

[14] Dempster A. P. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping, Annals of Math. Statistics 38 : 325-339. | MR | Zbl

[15] De Rocquigny E. (2005), Couplage mécano-probabiliste pour la fiabilité des structures - un cas industriel où la robustesse d'une surface de réponse est démontrable. Actes du 17 ème Congrès Français de Mécanique. Troyes.

[16] De Rocquigny E. (2004), Tutoriel Incertitudes, présenté dans la Conférence Lambda-Mu 14, Bourges, Octobre 2004.

[17] Devictor N. (2004), Intérêt des méthodes statistiques pour la prise en compte des incertitudes dans les processus de décision, Phoebus N°31.

[18] Devictor N. (1996), Fiabilité et mécanique : méthodes FORM/SORM et couplages avec des codes d'éléments finis par surfaces de réponse adaptative. PhD Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand.

[19] Devictor N., Bolado Lavin R. (eds) (2005), Proc. of the Workshop on the Use of Expert Judgment in Decision-Making, CEA & Eur. Comm. JRC Petten, Aix-en-Provence.

[20] Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community & Commission - Decision of 29 January 2004 (C(2004) 130) establishing guidelines for the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas émissions pursuant to Directive 2003/87/EC.

[21] Ditlevsen O. & Madsen H.O. (1996), Structural reliability Methods, John Wiley & Sons.

[22] Dubois D., Prade H. (1988), Possibility theory : an approach to computerized processing of uncertainty, New York, Plenum Press. | MR

[23] Duckstein L., Parent E. (1994), Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management, NATO ASI Series.

[24] Dutfoy A. (2000), Uncertainty propagation in radionuclide transport modelling for performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository, Proc. of PSAM5, Japan.

[25] Dutfoy A., Ritz J.B. (2001), Uncertainty propagation in a 3D thermal code for performance assessment of a nuclear waste disposal, Proceedings of the SIAM'6 Conference on Mathematical and Computational Issues in the Geosciences, Boulder, Colorado.

[26] Efron B., Tibshirani R.J. (1993), An introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall. | MR | Zbl

[27] Ekeland I. (1991), Au Hasard - La chance, la science et le monde, Seuil.

[28] Frey H.C., Rhodes D.S. (2005), Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in with Known Measurement Error : Methodology and Case Study, Risk Analysis Vol. 25, No3.

[29] Granger Morgan M., Henrion M. (1990), Uncertainty - A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press. | MR

[30] Helton J. (1993), Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal, Rel. Eng. & Syst. Saf., 42, 327-367.

[31] Helton J.C., Burmaster D.E. et al. (1996), Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty, Special Issue of Rel. Eng. & Syst. Saf., vol. 54 n°2 et 3.

[32] Helton J.C., Oberkampf W.L. (2004), Alternative Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty, Special Issue of Rel. Eng. & Syst. Saf., vol. 85 n°1-3.

[33] Hoffman F.O., Hammonds J.S. (1994), Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments : the Need to Distinguish between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty due to Variability, Risk Analysis, Vol 14. n°5.

[34] INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) 2000, Good practice guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

[35] Kendall Mg. & Stuart ( 1943-1979), A, The Advanced Theory of Statistics (2 vol), Griffin & Co., London. | Zbl

[36] Knight F.H. (1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Hart, Schaffner & Marx.

[37] Kuschel N., Rackwitz R. (2000), Optimal design under time-variant reliability constraints, Structural Safety, Volume 22, Issue 2, p. 113-127.

[38] Lannoy A., et al. (1994), Méthodes avancées d'analyse des bases de données du retour d'expérience industriel, Coll. D.E.R.EDF, n°86, Eyrolles.

[39] Lebrun R. (2006), Modelling dependency with copulas in reliability analysis, a new approach to the FORM and SORM methods, submitted to 8 PSAM Conference.

[40] Lemmer J.F., Kanal L.N. (eds) (1986), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Elsevier.

[41] Lencastre A. (1999), Hydraulique générale, Eyrolles.

[42] Mckay M.D. (1996), Application of Variance-Based Methods to NUREG-1150 Uncertainty Analyses, USNRC 1996.

[43] Mckone T.E. (1994), Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home-Grown Food : A Monte-Carlo Assessment, Risk Analysis Vol 14, No4.

[44] Merrick J.R., et al. (2005), Assessing uncertainty in Simulation-Based Maritime Assessment, Risk Analysis Vol. 25, No3.

[45] Miquel J. (1984), Guide pratique d'estimation des probabilités de crues, Eyrolles.

[46] Nelsen R.B. (1999), An introduction to copulas, SPRINGER. | MR

[47] Nilsen T.-, Aven T. (2003), Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis, Rel. Eng. Sys. Safe. 79, 309-317.

[48] Norme AFNOR XP X 07-020 (1996) : Normes Fondamentales : Guide pour l'expression de l'incertitude de mesure - AFNOR ( 1999) : Guide pour l'expression de l'incertitude de mesure, NF ENV 13005.

[49] Oberkampf W.L. et al. (2002), Error and uncertainty in modelling and simulation, Rel. Eng. &; Sys. Saf., 75.

[50] Paté-Cornell M.E. (1996), Uncertainty in risk analysis : six levels of treatment, Rel. Eng. & Syst. Saf. 54 (2-3), 95-111.

[51] Pendola M. (2000), Fiabilité des Structures en contexte d'incertitudes statistiques et d'écarts de modélisation, Thèse de l'Université Clermont II.

[52] Persoz M., Hugonnard-Bruyère S., Venturini V., Meister E. (2000), Deterministic and probabilistic assessments of the reactor pressure vessel structural integrity with user-friendly software, ASME Press. Vess. &; Piping.

[53] Procaccia H., Morilhat P. (1996), Fiabilité des structures des installations industrielles, Coll. D.E.R. EDF, n°94, Eyrolles.

[54] Quiggin J. (1982), A theory of anticipated utility, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol 3, pp. 323-343.

[55] Rabl A., Spadaro J.V. (1999), Damages and Costs of Air Pollution : an Analysis of Uncertainties, Environment International Vol 25(1), 29-46. | MR

[56] Rasmussen et al. (1975), Reactor Safety Study : An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-75/014 (WASH-1400), Washington D.C.

[57] Reiss R.D., Thomas M. (2001), Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values, Ed. Birkhauser. | MR

[58] Relcon A.B., Risk Spectrum - Theory Manual.

[59] Royset J.O., Der Kiureghian A., and Polak E. (2001), Reliability-based optimal structural design by the decoupling approach, Rel. Eng. Sz Syst. Saf., Vol. 73, Issue 3, P. 213-221.

[60] Rowe W.D. (1994), Understanding Uncertainty, Risk Analysis, Vol 14. n°5.

[61] Savage L.H. ( 1954 & 1972), The Foundations of Statistics, Dover, New York. | MR | Zbl

[62] Shannon C.E., (1948), A mathematical theory of communication, Bell Systems Technical Journal 27. | MR | Zbl

[63] Sourget F., et al. (2004), Protection de la ligne TGV-Méditerranée face aux vents traversiers, Actes de la Conf. Lambda-Mu 14, Bourges.

[64] Sudret B., Defaux G., Pendola M. (2005), Time-variant finite element reliability analysis - Application to the durability of cooling towers, Structural Safety, Vol. 27, pp. 93-112.

[65] Sudret B., Guédé Z., Lemaire M. (2005), Probabilistic assessment of thermal fatigue in nuclear components, Nucl. Eng. Des., Vol. 235, pp. 219-235.

[66] Von Neumann J., Morgenstern O., (1944), Theory of games and economic behavior, Princeton University Press. | MR | Zbl

[67] Walley P. (1991), Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities, London, Chapman and Hall. | MR | Zbl