Numéro spécial : fiabilité
Approche décisionnelle bayésienne pour estimer une courbe de fragilité
Journal de la société française de statistique, Tome 155 (2014) no. 3, pp. 78-103.

L’étude présentée dans cet article se focalise sur les aspects décisionnels de l’estimation statistique d’une courbe de fragilité sismique. Cet objet utilisé en ingénierie du risque renseigne la probabilité de défaillance d’une structure conditionnellement à un certain niveau de sollicitation. Après avoir détaillé la modélisation statistique utilisée pour sa construction, précisé les motivations industrielles et dressé un panel des méthodes existantes dans la littérature, nous mettons l’accent sur le cadre rigoureux que permet l’analyse décisionnelle bayésienne pour estimer une courbe de fragilité en tenant compte des conséquences socio-économiques du problème. L’estimation statistique est réalisée à partir de données simulant le comportement d’une maquette de bâtiment à échelle réduite. Plusieurs estimateurs sont comparés au regard de la fonction de coût utilisée.

This study deals with decisional analysis for estimating a seismic fragility curve, a tool used by risk engineers to provide the probability of a structure to suffer a given damage level conditionally to a given seismic intensity. After having described the statistical model and emphasized both the industrial motivations and the methods usually used to assess fragility curves, we focus on Bayesian decision analysis to estimate it accounting for social-economic consequences. Datasets are collected from numerical simulations and some estimators of the fragility curve are compared with respect to the chosen loss function.

Mot clés : analyse de risque, courbes de fragilité, théorie bayésienne, analyse décisionnelle, fonction de coût, expériences numériques
Keywords: risk analysis, fragility curves, Bayesian theory, decision analysis, loss function, computer experiments 
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Damblin, Guillaume; Keller, Merlin; Pasanisi, Alberto; Barbillon, Pierre; Parent, Eric. Approche décisionnelle bayésienne pour estimer une courbe de fragilité. Journal de la société française de statistique, Tome 155 (2014) no. 3, pp. 78-103. http://archive.numdam.org/item/JSFS_2014__155_3_78_0/

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